IMF upbeat about global outlook

　　A celebration of four excellent years for the world economy and warnings that the good times could end in tears：that sums up the views of Raghuram Rajan，the International Monetary Fund's chief economist.

Speaking to the Financial Times in London ahead of the IMF and World Bank's annual meeting in Singapore this weekend and writing in today's newspaper，Mr Rajan shows that the fund is happier about both the underpinnings of the world economy and its prospects.

　　A leak of the fund's economic forecasts，published in the FT last week，showed it now expects global economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2006，compared with its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent in April.

　　These figures and Mr Rajan's thoughts will be confirmed in the publication of the IMF's World Economic Outlook today. In 2007 the fund expects a slowing of advanced economies but with emerging countries powering ahead，the world is still set to grow by 4.9 per cent.

　　A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times，was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.

　　"What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted" he says.

　　Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. "The risks are two-sided" he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. "The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises."

　　But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China，oil exporters and Japan.

　　For the past 18 months，the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances，involving a slump in the US dollar，much higher global interest rates and a global recession，risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.

　　It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit，Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms，China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi，and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and "greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia"，a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.

　　一、參考譯文：

　　國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的觀點(diǎn)可以概括為兩個(gè)方面：一方面慶祝世界經(jīng)濟(jì)4年來(lái)的出色表現(xiàn)，另一方面警告大好時(shí)光可能會(huì)慘淡收?qǐng)觥?/p>

　　國(guó)際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行(World Bank)的年會(huì)本周末將在新加坡召開(kāi)。在此之前，拉詹先生在倫敦接受了《金融時(shí)報(bào)》采訪并在本報(bào)今天的報(bào)紙上撰文。他的觀點(diǎn)表明，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本狀況及其前景比先前更為樂(lè)觀。

　　國(guó)際貨幣基金組織透露了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)所作的部分預(yù)測(cè)(《金融時(shí)報(bào)》上周發(fā)表了這些內(nèi)容)，它們顯示，該組織預(yù)計(jì)2006年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為5.1%，而相比之下，該組織于今年4月所作的上一次預(yù)測(cè)為4.8%.

　　國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(World Economic Outlook)將于今天發(fā)表，屆時(shí)有關(guān)上述數(shù)據(jù)和拉詹想法的真實(shí)性將得到證實(shí)。該基金組織預(yù)計(jì)，2007年，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將減速，但隨著新興國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)蓬勃發(fā)展，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將增長(zhǎng)4.9%.

　　拉詹先生在接受《金融時(shí)報(bào)》采訪時(shí)表達(dá)了一種新的憂(yōu)慮，即隨著新的政策改革陷入停滯，一度支撐了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)逐漸消失。

　　“我目前看到的情況，是政策改革的緊迫性還相當(dāng)?shù)?rdquo;他表示。

　　一種日益高漲的預(yù)測(cè)是，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)明年將出現(xiàn)衰退。對(duì)此拉詹并不認(rèn)同。“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是雙方面的”他表示。通脹和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩是美國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。“關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是，經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩是否足以壓制通脹壓力，或是否需要進(jìn)一步升息。”

　　但在拉詹看來(lái)，最主要的問(wèn)題仍是不斷擴(kuò)大的全球貿(mào)易失衡。它導(dǎo)致美國(guó)背負(fù)巨額貿(mào)易逆差，而中國(guó)、石油出口國(guó)和日本則相應(yīng)獲得了大量盈余。

　　過(guò)去18個(gè)月中，國(guó)際貨幣資金組織曾警告說(shuō)，無(wú)序解決這些失衡，會(huì)使美元大幅貶值、全球利率大幅上升和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，從而增加金融市場(chǎng)紊亂和保護(hù)主義再度抬頭的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　該組織呼吁，美國(guó)應(yīng)減少預(yù)算赤字，歐洲和日本應(yīng)加快內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，中國(guó)要推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)并允許人民幣進(jìn)一步升值，其余亞洲國(guó)家應(yīng)加大投資力度，以及“亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體增加匯率彈性”，即委婉地敦促中國(guó)讓人民幣進(jìn)一步升值。

　　二、重點(diǎn)詞匯：

　　monetary 　adj.貨幣的， 金錢(qián)的

　　prospect 　n.景色， 前景， 前途， 期望

　　vi.尋找， 勘探

　　forecast 　n.先見(jiàn)， 預(yù)見(jiàn)， 預(yù)測(cè)， 預(yù)報(bào)

　　vt.預(yù)想， 預(yù)測(cè)， 預(yù)報(bào)， 預(yù)兆

　　confirmed 　adj.證實(shí)的， 慣常的， 慢性的

　　underpin 　v.加強(qiáng)……的基礎(chǔ)， 鞏固， 支撐

　　recession 　n.撤回， 退回， 退后， 工商業(yè)之衰退， 不景氣

　　inflationary 　adj.通貨膨脹的， 通貨膨脹傾向的

　　deficit 　n.赤字， 不足額

　　correspondingly 　adv.相對(duì)地， 比照地

　　consumption 　n.消費(fèi)， 消費(fèi)量， 肺病

　　revaluation 　n.再評(píng)價(jià)